Packing on the points has meant very little to NFL underdogs this season. Even with the NFL odds giving them a buffer, teams getting the points have covered just 47% of the time heading into Week 11.
This is a drastic change in betting patterns compared to recent seasons, with NFL underdogs covering at a 57% clip in the opening 10 weeks of action over the previous four years (2019-2022). There are only six teams with winning ATS records as underdogs and three of those teams have been pups just once.
In terms of reliable underdog bets, the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 ATS), Houston Texans (4-2 ATS), and Minnesota Vikings (3-2 ATS) stand out from the crowd. But Houston and Minnesota are now among the hotter teams in the NFL and the betting markets are taking the bark out of those bets.
The Week 11 odds board presents a mixed bag of potential puppy picks. A few terrible teams are getting a ton of points (double digits dogs are 3-8 ATS), some tighter divisional rivalries (divisional dogs are 18-19-2 ATS), and some non-conference clashes (non-con dogs 19-29-4 ATS).
We also get the rare spot to play the Philadelphia Eagles as underdogs in our NFL picks — a role Philly has been in only once in the past 29 games going back to last season. Since no team or trend has been the pick of the litter, we have to get some dirt under our nails digging through the best underdog picks and predictions for Week 11.
Last week: 1-1-1 ATSSeason: 16-13-1 ATS
